We are a clever, ambitious species who for hundreds of thousands of years (or more depending on the model) lived off of current/recent solar flows. We eventually puzzled out how to access stored sunlight in the form of fossil fuels. The population and growth trajectory that ensued eventually latched on to a series of assumptions/rationales that would fuse into the system a belief that more is better and that there would be unlimited substitutes for finite natural resources like oil and water. The change from using solar flows to the energy gain contained in a barrel of crude oil was and still is, indistinguishable from magic in the larger scheme.

Eventually (1970s), some cracks in the assumptions underlying this model appeared. Real wages then peaked in the early 1970s and have been declining ever since. Globally, though the poorest people in the world earn more than they did a generation ago, the fact that over 2 billion people don’t have a toilet doesn’t really sound like an equitable global playing field. Oil peaked in the world’s largest oil producer (USA) in 1970. In 1971 we discontinued the gold window and the worlds economic system had no natural tether to real assets. Without such a monetary speedbump, debt skyrocketed over recent decades and became every bit as important driver of economic growth as cheap energy.

Continued..

What a brilliant camera the Leica M8 is. Had a quick play around with it today and it is really quite superb. Such a nice change from my usual point and shoot, but kind of tricky to use. It is also hard to get people to stay still for long enough for you get them in focus and sort out the aperture settings! Anyway, few of the test shots below.

In 2009, more cars were sold in China than in the United States, something most analysts did not expect to see before 2018 or 2020, said Mr. Yergin. If China continues at its current pace, he said, it will be consuming more oil than the United States by the end of the decade.
The United States consumes about 19 million barrels-per-day now. China consumes about 8. The difference is 11. Thanks to the slowdown in energy consumption, OPEC producers now hold an estimated (highly unlikely given decline rates and overstated reserves) six million barrels a day of spare capacity, equal to roughly 7 percent of current demand, much of it in Saudi Arabia alone.
Here’s the deal. Once we run through the current spare capacity, the oil supply then and for the rest of your life is essentially a Zero Sum Game. If China uses more, someone else must use less.

zero-sum describes a situation in which a participant’s gain or loss is exactly balanced by the losses or gains of the other participant(s). If the total gains of the participants are added up, and the total losses are subtracted, they will sum to zero.

Saudi Arabia is gradually reducing crude oil exports to the US as it is pushing deeper into China and other fast-growing Asian markets. Exports to the US fell to 837,000 b/d in November, the lowest level in 21 years.

Slightly creepy, but nicely done. Via Behance.net.

Wall Street bonuses climbed 17% to $20.3 billion last year as stock and corporate bond markets rebounded strongly on the back of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimuli from developed-world governments.

In 2008, the industry lost a record $42.6 billion.

Something is VERY wrong with this picture.

Instead of being punished for their considerable role in this crisis (and the next), and their part in destroying retirement funds and ruining millions of lives, wallstreet has been rewarded. The government handed them taxpayer money so they could make good on their bad bets rather than go under, and they turn around and give themselves record bonuses? This figure doesnt even count the money from shares handed out as bonuses.

Ghastly behavior as my grandmother would say.

Lazy day, walk around town.

Bank of America and Barclays Capital, two leading oil traders, have told clients to brace for crude above $100 (£64) a barrel by next year, before it pushes relentlessly higher over the decade.

If they are right, (and based on simple mathematics they are) we can kiss goodbye to any recovery until things get really bad again, at which point the price will most likely drop again, and the talking heads will start talking about green shoots again, and the price will rise again.

Rinse and repeat.

Really who knows what will happen, but some or all of this future is hard to rule out as a likely possibility.

All week long, the Arctic Circle has been aglow with auroras. “The lights have been incredibly bright and active,” says Øystein Lunde Ingvaldsen of Bø i Vesterålen, Norway. He took this picture on Feb. 17th:

“This has been a very nice month for auroras,” agrees Wioleta Zarzycka of Iceland, where coastal waters have been turning green in reflection of the sky above. The lights have even descended as far south as Scotland. “On Monday night, we had the first auroras I have seen here in years,” reports Gordon Mackay of Campsie Fells.

All this activity is a sign that the sun is coming back to life after a long, deep solar minimum. Sunspots have returned crackling with solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are once again buffeting Earth’s magnetic field.

Via Spaceweather…

Amatoya is a concept reconnaissance and suppression vehicle that gives us a new approach to fire-fighting. This highly advanced and specialized light tanker functions primarily as a reconnaissance vehicle and offers unmatched vehicle and crew safety/survivability. It promises to be the best front line defense during the scene of an emergency.

The thing is 6 Meters Long!

the story behind it here..

This is one part of an 8 part video which everyone should see. If you want to really understand it, your best bet is to start at the beginning here. You might find it boring to start with, but the information is invaluable. I watched it a few years back and just rediscovered it last night and the 2nd watch was even more rewarding.
Hat tip TAEC.

We were happy to spot Nelson Piquet Jr. in the -273 Corp T recently.
Full vid here.

By the way, if the page looks a little weird today, refresh it and it should be better. We have been doing some .css tweaks over the last few days (thanks for the help on the margin issue steve!)  to make the site a bit sharper.

First test with the new GoPro camera. The good news is the camera is wicked, the bad news is I had the camera on a ski pole in the morning which looks pretty cool but it is kind of  a hassle to carry around. In the afternoon I had the camera attached to my helmet which is great to ride with, but the video is kind of dull. It will be better if you follow someone to have some more going on in the frame I guess.

I didn’t play with the speed at all, although it looks almost fast forward at times, just cut different bits of vid together. In hindsight I think it could be way shorter, (especially the first riding shot) but it’s a first test so not really worth the hassle of re-editing etc. I’m still trying to figure out the best render/compression settings, and came across some articles about it after I made this so should be better quality next time. I filmed this up in Muehlbach, Austria with some peeps from work.

A new GoPro Just arrived from Amazon, along with 30cm of pow overnight on top of the rest. Cant wait to try this thing out.

Meanwhile, following up on the post a few down:

WSJ Reports, “The Next Crisis: Prepare for Peak Oil”
The Wall Street Journal today has an article about the work of Britain’s Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security that goes well beyond summarizing what the task force said in its report. The article starts out:

The Next Crisis: Prepare for Peak Oil

As Europe’s leaders gather in Brussels today, they have only one crisis in mind: the debts that threaten the stability of the European Union. They are unlikely to be in any mood to listen to warnings about a different crisis that is looming and that could cause massive disruption.

A shortage of oil could be a real problem for the world within a fairly short period of time.

From the oil drum…